I usually start scribbling down my Oscar predictions next to my must-see movie list in October, but I make no claim  to being an expert—only a strange fanatic. About this time last year, I realized with some degree of mild embarrassment that I received more text messages from well-wishers on Oscar Sunday than on my birthday. For as long as I can remember—charted by a collection of worn-out VHS recordings of prior ceremonies and list of old nominees tucked into my bookshelf—I have watched the Academy Awards every year with a kind of fervent enthusiasm people usually reserve for activities to which they have tangible connection. No, I’m like someone featured on Hoarders who is dramatically attached to paper scraps, while everyone around them thinks, “You’re obsessed with that?”

All the years of watching have, however, helped cultivate a certain skill in predicting the winners. I’m not dumb enough to say that I accurately predict every category. Sometimes the other awards of the season somehow don’t translate into big Oscar wins (think: Crash over Brokeback Mountain in 2006). Other times, I just hate to admit the inevitable. Sandra Bullock seems like such a lovely person, and she was a total lock for Best Actress in 2010, but I absolutely hated The Blind Side—even seeing Michael Oher at the Superbowl this year was enough to make me groan.

So with that grain of salt, I offer a few predictions for the major awards this year. As much as I’ll be wishing for Amy Poehler and Tina Fey while Seth McFarlane is mugging across the stage, I have to admit that I am very eager to see who comes out on top with so many competitive races this year.

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz

I think that this race is actually the hardest to call. Waltz, Jones and Hoffman have all picked up various awards this season. The Academy likes Hoffman and most seemed to agree that he was a strong center for The Master. I’m leaning towards Waltz’s performance in Django Unchained. For me, Waltz stood out for his quiet, compassionate moments in an otherwise brash and outrageous film. The race is incredibly close, but let’s hope for a Waltz win.

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway

I’m not an Anne Hathaway fan. I’ve seen The Princess Diaries so many times (only once by direct choice! The rest were through pre-teen girly movie osmosis) that the image of frizzy-haired, bushy-browed “Mia” screeching, “Just throw in a tiara!” still haunts me every time I see Hathaway. (This was especially disturbing when I had to reconcile that picture with the sight of Hathaway topless in Brokeback Mountain—I busted out an incredulous, eyes-bugged-out gasp in the theater.) This diversion is meant to say that despite what I of [actual] Academy voters may feel towards Hathaway, she will win this award. I love Sally Field, but seriously, Hathaway shaved her head and starved herself—I think we can call this a lock.

Best Actor: Daniel Day- Lewis

C’mon. This is another race that is hardly worth writing about. Lincoln could be total garbage and Daniel Day-Lewis would still win. It was obvious from the very first image that they released of Day-Lewis in full Lincoln-regalia that he was good to go. There is no chance that he won’t win here.

Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence

Here is another tricky race. Emmanuelle Riva has gained lot of momentum after picking up a few awards recently. It is also true that the Academy Awards likes giving awards to old people, as we saw with Christopher Plummer last year. (Speaking of which, isn’t this a bit of morbid tradition? “Here take this award that we forgot to give you many years ago before you kick the bucket!”) I think Riva has a chance, but the Academy isn’t usually very kind to actors in foreign films. I’m inclined to think that the race is still between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain. Chastain turned in my favorite performance in this category for her almost terrifying CIA agent, but other award show voters seems to be leaning towards Lawrence. With her strong performance next to Robert De Niro and a fantastic Bradley Cooper, Lawrence, my fellow Kentuckian, has a good chance of getting Oscar gold on Sunday.

Director: Lincoln

Here’s where we resurrect one of my favorite Weekend Update sketches of recent years, “Really?!?” It’s not that the nominees are by any means unqualified—all of them did direct films that found themselves in the Best Picture category as well. I just always find it surprising when the most likely Best Pics don’t get a director shout out; Ben Affleck and his beard created some great stuff in Argo. While it’s great to see some new names here, the Academy has some definite favorites. Lee has a chance with Life of Pi since most people apparently thought that film was unfilmable. Lincoln may not be my favorite film of the year, but I cannot deny that it is pretty stunning and Spielberg’ strongest since Saving Private Ryan— the film that netted him his second best director statue.

Best Picture: Argo

It’s always exciting to have a year where all the nominees are strong and interesting in their own way. This sense is heightened this year where I feel the true potential of the expanded field is better realized; we may be missing a major blockbuster (sorry, The Avengers was never going to happen here) but each film was successful in its own way. Although I was drawn more towards Zero Dark Thirty and [parts of] Django Unchained, the Academy is still conservative—the torture in both films makes the old folks squirm. Les Misérables and Lincoln could easily sneak in—they are the type of films (read: sweeping, dramatic epics) that the Oscars salivate over. I’m sure somewhere, some show producer is weeping over the Lincoln montage. However, Argo has my ultimate vote as well as the Academy’s—it has the buzz and a slew of other awards to help it land the big prize on Sunday.

Wild Card—Best Song: Skyfall

I will literally barf if Seth McFarlane wins this one. I’m pulling for Adele. I think “Skyfall” has a great chance to break the James Bond “glass ceiling” and finally pull in a Best Song for the franchise that brought us such gems as, “Goldfinger.” (That wasn’t a dig, by the way. I love that song, even though the only lyric that I know is the singular word, “goldfinger.”) “Skyfall” is nice enough, but I’m mostly hoping for a win so that Adele can get up on stage and say some delightfully British things.