The 66th Primetime Emmy Awards will be handed out next Monday, August 25th. Everyone says this every year…. but there are a LOT of great nominees. Tough to predict who will come away with the awards, but I’m going to try to do just that.

Please note these are entirely subjective opinions, and also please note that I’ve lost my roommate pool of Emmy predictions for the last two years. So take these with a grain of salt. Then watch our live blog Monday, and rub it in when I’m wrong.

Best Drama Series 
“Breaking Bad” 
“Downton Abbey” 
“Game of Thrones” 
“House of Cards” 
“Mad Men” 
“True Detective”

Will Win: Breaking Bad. The final season (err, half-season) was fantastic. Despite great seasons by ALL the other contenders, I think the Academy sends Breaking Bad off fondly.

Should Win: See above.

Best Comedy Series 
“The Big Bang Theory”
 “Louie”
 “Modern Family”
 “Orange is the New Black” 
“Silicon Valley” 
“Veep”

Will Win: Modern Family. Past Emmy awards seem to indicate there’s no stopping the sitcom-y sitcoms in the comedy series.

Should Win: Veep. The show has gotten better every year.

 

Lead Actor in a Drama Series 
Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad”
 Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom”
 Jon Hamm, “Mad Men” 
Woody Harrelson, “True Detective”
 Matthew McConaughey, “True Detective” 
Kevin Spacey, “House of Cards”

Will Win: McConaughey. HBO let McConaughey chew the scenery, and he made it look delicious.

Should Win: Bryan Cranston. The “Ozymandias” episode alone sells it.

 

Lead Actress in a Drama Series
 Lizzy Caplan, “Masters of Sex” 
Claire Danes, “Homeland”
 Michelle Dockery, “Downton Abbey”
 Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife” 
Kerry Washington, “Scandal”
 Robin Wright, “House of Cards”

Will Win: Robin Wright. Nice to see House of Cards give its female lead more to do in season two.

Should Win: Robin Wright. Strongest performance of any of the contenders.

 

Lead Actor, Comedy 
Jim Parsons, “The Big Bang Theory”
 Ricky Gervais, “Derek”
 Matt LeBlanc, “Episodes”
 Don Cheadle, “House of Lies”
 Louis C.K., “Louie” 
William H. Macy, “Shameless”

Will Win: Jim Parsons. You know how I said the Academy loves sitcom-y performances? Yes, Sheldon Cooper is an eccentric character… but does anyone still find it original and fresh? Yes, apparently: Emmy voters do.

Should Win: Louie. Arguably this season of his show was equal parts drama and comedy, but that just shows Louie’s versatility. He’s gotten Emmys for writing before, but never acting. Time to fix that.

 

Lead Actress, Comedy 
Lena Dunham, “Girls” 
Edie Falco, “Nurse Jackie” 
Julia Louis Dreyfus, “Veep”
 Melissa McCarthy, “Mike & Molly”
 Amy Poehler, “Parks & Recreation”
 Taylor Schilling, “Orange Is the New Black”

Will Win: Julia Louis Dreyfus. Selina Meyer is one of the funniest characters on TV. No one will be surprised to see JLD win her third Emmy for the role.

Should Win: Amy Poehler. I love Veep, but I just can’t accept living in a world where Amy Poehler has not won an Emmy as Leslie Knope.

 

Lead Actor in a Miniseries or a Movie
 Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock: His Last Vow” 
Chiwetel Ejiofor, “Dancing on the Edge” 
Martin Freeman, “Fargo” 
Billy Bob Thorton, “Fargo” 
Idris Elba, “Luther” 
Mark Ruffalo, “The Normal Heart”

Will Win: Mark Ruffalo. Normal Heart feels like the kind of TV-movie that would be Oscar bait if it were a feature film. For that reason, it’ll stand out in TV land.

Should Win: Billy Bob Thornton. The menacing portrayal of Malvo on Fargo is his best work since Slingblade.

 

Lead Actress in a Miniseries or a Movie 
Helena Bonham Carter, “Burton and Taylor” 
Minnie Driver, “Return to Zero”
 Jessica Lange, “American Horror Story: Coven”
 Sarah Paulson, “American Horror Story: Coven”
 Cicely Tyson, “The Trip to Beautiful” 
Kristen Wiig, “The Spoils of Babylon”

Will Win: Jessica Lange.

Should Win: Jessica Lange, I guess. She played a sinister witch on the same show where she’s played a sinister nun and a sinister next-door neighbor. Not exactly stretching herself, but she’s found what works.

 

Reality-Competition Series 
“The Amazing Race”
 “Dancing with the Stars” 
“Project Runway”
 “So You Think You Can Dance” 
“Top Chef” 
“The Voice”

Will Win: The Voice.

Should Win: The Voice.

 

Variety Series
 “The Colbert Report” 
“The Daily Show with Jon Stewart” 
“Jimmy Kimmel Live”
 “Real Time with Bill Maher” 
“Saturday Night Live”
 “The Tonight Show starring Jimmy Fallon”

Will Win: Tonight Show w/ Fallon. Colbert broke the massive Daily Show streak last year, so it’s anyone’s game now. Emmy voters probably love those viral celebrity gimmicks as much as everyone on Facebook & Twitter.

Should Win: Colbert. Wouldn’t be surprised by a repeat.

 

Miniseries 
“American Horror Story: Coven” 
“Bonnie & Clyde” 
“Fargo” 
“Luther” 
“Treme” 
“The White Queen”

Will Win: Fargo.

Should Win: Fargo. Best 10-hour movie I’ve ever seen.

 

Television Movie 
“Killing Kennedy” 
“Muhammad Ali’s Greatest Fight” 
“The Normal Heart”
 “Sherlock: His Last Vow”
 “The Trip to Bountiful”

Will Win: Normal Heart.

Should Win: Normal Heart.

 

Supporting Actor, Drama 
Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad” 
Jim Carter, “Downton Abbey”
 Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”
 Josh Charles, “The Good Wife”
 Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland” 
Jon Voight, “Ray Donovan”

Will Win: Aaron Paul. We all love Jesse Pinkman, and everyone wants to hear one last “yeah, bitch!” from the podium.

Should Win: Peter Dinklage. I love Aaron Paul, but I’m just going to leave this here…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZ_bUIFwHJI

Supporting Actress, Drama
 Anna Gunn, “Breaking Bad”
 Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey” 
Joanne Froggatt, “Downton Abbey” 
Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones”
 Christine Baranski, “The Good Wife”
Christina Hendricks, “Mad Men”

Will Win: Anna Gunn.

Should Win: Anna Gunn.

 

Supporting Actor, Comedy
 Andre Braugher, “Brooklyn Nine-Nine”
 Adam Driver, “Girls”
 Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family”
 Ty Burrell, “Modern Family”
 Fred Armisen, “Portlandia”

Will Win: Modern Family. Rule of sitcom-y roles again.

Should Win: Andre Braugher.

 

Supporting Actress, Comedy 
Mayim Bialik, “The Big Bang Theory”
 Julie Bowen, “Modern Family” 
Allison Janney, “Mom”
 Kate Mulgrew, “Orange Is the New Black”
 Kate McKinnon, “Saturday Night Live”
 Anna Chlumsky, “Veep”

Will Win: Allison Janney. She’s got some good will among Emmy voters, and she’s the best thing about Mom.

Should Win: Kate Mulgrew. There’s a lot to love about Orange is the New Black, and Mulgrew’s character was one of the central sources of pathos this year.

 

Supporting Actor, Miniseries or Movie 
Colin Hanks, “Fargo” 
Jim Parsons, “The Normal Heart”
 Joe Mantello, “The Normal Heart” 
Alfred Molina, “The Normal Heart”
 Matt Bomer, “The Normal Heart” 
Martin Freeman, “Sherlock: His Last Vow”

Will Win: Matt Bomer.

Should Win: Colin Hanks.

 

Supporting Actress, Miniseries or Movie
 Frances Conroy, “American Horror Story: Coven”
 Kathy Bates, “American Horror Story: Coven” 
Angela Bassett, “American Horror Story: Coven”
 Allison Tolman, “Fargo” 
Ellen Burstyn, “Flowers in the Attic”
 Julia Roberts, “The Normal Heart”

Will Win: Julia Roberts.

Should Win: Allison Tolman.